2011 Pac-12 Preview

Love it or hate it, it's here.  The Conference of Champions enters a new era with the addition of Colorado and Utah.  But that isn't all that's changed.  The ascendancy of Oregon as the conference powerhouse has altered the complexion of not only the conference, but the landscape of college football.  Credit Commissioner Larry Scott. He came in to shake things up, raise the league's profile, secure more revenue and better bowl deals.  There's no doubt he's succeeded.  The addition of a championship game goes a long way to close the publicity gap the SEC and Big-12 have used to virtually guarantee their conference a spot in the national championship.  And with the Big-12 falling apart at the seams, it will be much harder to keep a Pac-12 winner out of the big game.

The question is, will the Pac-12 deliver a team with the chops to be a national title contender?  Maybe.  Oregon and Stanford must show they haven't dropped off. Southern Cal still can't go to a bowl.  Washington and Arizona State are on the rise, but have yet to prove themselves against the league's best.

One thing will not change, however.  The Pac-12 will continue to feature wide open offenses led by great quarterbacks.  Andrew Luck is the nation's best quarterback, while Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, and Darron Thomas are veterans who will continue to give defensive coordinators headaches.  Here's how it's gonna go down:

South
6.  Colorado
New head coach John Embree and his staff have their work cut out for them.  They must adjust to playing in a new conference where they lack the familiarity with its teams.  They have one of the nation's toughest schedules with road games against Hawaii, Ohio State, Stanford, and Arizona State.  And they must figure out a way to slow down Pac-12 offenses with a pass defense that was among the worst in the Big-12 last season.  It's not all bad news.  The offense returns four starters on the O-line, a senior quarterback, and a dependable, if undersized running back.

5.  UCLA
I still find myself confounded at how this program, with its proud history, and arguably the nation's best high school talent in its backyard, continues to flounder year after year. I was among those who thought Rick Neuheisal would elevate the program. Obviously that hasn't happened.  With his job on the line, he has thrown himself into improving the single biggest weakness on the team - quarterback. Last season, the Bruins ranked an anemic 116th nationally behind sophomores Kevin Prince and Richard Brehaut.  Neuheisal has doubled down on the Pistol Offense by hiring Nevada running backs coach Jim Mastro to improve it.  He will be helped in his task by a solid stable of backs led by 1,000 yard rusher Jonathan Franklin, while experienced, potentially dangerous receivers lay in wait  for a quarterback to make it go.  Defensively, the losses of playmakers Akeem Ayers and Rahim Moore will be offset by what Neuheisal hopes will be a better overall squad under the tutelage of new defensive coordinator Joe Tresey.

4.  Arizona
The Wildcats finished last season with five straight losses, including an embarrassing Alamo Bowl loss to Oklahoma State.  Unfortunately, it's hard to see how their fortunes improve in 2011.  Problem #1?  The Wildcats must replace their entire offensive line.   This is problem for a team that already ranked 8th in the conference in rushing, and must therefore keep their star quarterback upright at all costs.  On defense, the 'Cats will struggle to replace the quarterback-hating tandem of Brooks Reed and Ricky Elmore that created so much havoc for opponents.  If they aren't able to address the problems soon, the Wildcats could get eaten up by an early, brutal four-game stretch against Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon and USC.  Head coach Mike Stoops will rely heavily upon senior quarterback Nick Foles to create offense.  Fortunately for him, they have the league's best pass catcher in Juron Criner who will lead what may be the league's deepest and best receiving corps.

3.  Utah
Although the Utes are coming from a weaker conference than Colorado, I suspect their transition will be an easier one.  Not only has Utah been a top 25 program for the better part of a decade, notching BCS bowl victories over Pitt and Alabama, but they have been playing Pac-10 teams annually for more than a decade going 7-3 against the conference since 2003.  Add to that an outstanding head coach in Kyle Whittingham, sage offensive coordinator Norm Chow who will have a veteran quarterback to work with. The challenge will be the transition from the spread offense the Utes have employed for years, to Chow's west coast offense.  Defensively, the Utes return all three starting linebackers.  The bad news is they return no one else.  The defensive line will likely be fine, as they rotate some ten players up front, but the secondary's lack of experience makes them vulnerable.

2.  USC
The Trojans welcome back the three top skill position players to an offense that averaged 31 points a game last season.  Quarterback Matt Barkley has demonstrated remarkable poise and improvement in his first two years.  Marc Tyler distinguished himself from a talented stable of running backs to gain 913 yards, 9 TDs last year.  And wide receiver Robert Woods is one of the league's most electric playmakers.  Whether they improve upon last year will depend on replacing three starters on the O-line from a group of candidates that's thin on experience.  On the other side, head coach Lane Kiffin must find some ways to plug holes in a defense that let opposing players run wild, particularly in the secondary.  Despite this, the Trojans somehow managed to win eight games last year.  But matching or improving upon that will be difficult when they must go on the road to play Arizona State, Cal, Notre Dame and Oregon.  How will the manage?  Like the Men of Troy always do, dump ridiculous amounts of talent into their roster and stir vigorously.

1.  Arizona State
Once again, the Sun Devils enter the season loaded with talent and aspirations, but fans have no patience for excuses this year.  At the unveiling of their new uniforms, the program reemphasized this sentiment with the slogan "It's Time."  But in order to make a run at the roses, Dennis Erickson will have to prove he can bring another one of his notoriously undisciplined teams to heel.  And it starts on defense.  All-world linebacker Vontaze Burfict was the epicenter of the most penalized team in the conference last season (4th nationwide).  They can't afford that.  Not when a pass defense that got burned so much last year loses its all conference corner Omar Bolden with a torn ACL. Not when they have to find three news starters on the line.  It will fall on Burfict and league's meanest linebacking crew to hold that defense together.

Offensively, the Devils could be scary good.  With all five starters returning, ASU may have the best offensive line in the conference.  They have a solid running attack with 223 lb. Cameron Marshall and mercurial change-up man Deantre Lewis.  Gerell Robinson, Aaron Pflugrad, and budding star Jamal Miles will spread the field for Erickson's single back offense.  And to make all go, the Devils will count on junior signal caller Brock Osweiller.  At 6'8", he's surprisingly mobile and has a big arm.  He's not yet a proven commodity, but he did lead ASU to wins over UCLA and Arizona to finish the season.

Bottom line: The Sun Devils may be good enough to win the South, maybe the conference, but that's been the story of Erickson's tenure in Tempe.  And every year they disappoint.  Why should this year be different?  Well, it's all laid out for them.  The Pac-12 South is relatively weak, so even a team with two losses might well win the division.  And even if the Trojans have a better record, they can't participate in the conference championship game which means a second place finish for ASU earns them the right to play the winner of the North on Dec. 2.  Even more providential is the Sun Devils' schedule that features seven home games (including USC).  And most importantly: no Stanford.

North          
6.  Oregon State 
The Beavers just came off the finest decade in its history, and yet I can't help but feel this is a program in decline.  The caliber of players that once propelled the Beavers to eight, nine and ten win seasons between 2006 and 2009 are noticeably absent, particularly on defense.  This year, the Beavers return three starters from a squad that finished 8th in total defense last year.  And one of those, cornerback Brandon Hardin may be out for the season with an injury.  It gets worse.  Injuries have so devastated the defensive tackle position they are rotating d-ends to shore things up.

Offensively things are somewhat better.  Most of the line comes back.  Quarterback is solid with Ryan Katz primed to improve upon last year, but who will he throw to?  Star receiver James Rodgers and tight end Joe Halahuni are still out, and there's no other proven pass catchers.  And I haven't even mentioned the gaping hole in backfield left by the great Jacquizz Rogers.  With three or four guys in the mix, it's anyone's guess who will carry the ball.  Get ready for a long year Beaver fans.

5.  Washington State
In 2010, the Cougars showed some fight that's been absent for several years.  Despite only winning two games, they were competitive in all but three, which is a huge improvement.  Junior quarterback Jeff Tuel is a rising star who completed 60% of his passes despite being sacked 51 times.  And he's got two solid targets in Marques Wilson and Jared Karstetter.  The Cougars once again finished last in nearly every defensive category.  If the D tightens up, this team could notch five, possibly six wins. That may not sound like much, but considering they haven't finished with more than two wins in three years, it's a big step.  And with the team opening against Idaho State, UNLV, San Diego State, and Colorado, a 4-0 start is a real possibility.

4.  California
The Golden Bears face a lot of uncertainty on both sides of the ball.  Offensively, they must replace Shane Vereen's production on the ground.  Iso Safele is the leading candidate.  Coach Jeff Tedford is hoping Buffalo transfer Zach Snyder will end the uncertainty and inconsistency that has plagued the quarterback position ever since Aaron Rodgers graduated.  On the other side, the Bears will struggle to find the muscle up front as they must replace the leading tackler Mike Mohamed and three out of four on last year's monstrous defensive line.

3.  Washington
The Huskies head in to 2011 riding high after their astonishing Holiday Bowl win over Nebraska.  Coach Steve Sarkisian took over a team that was winless, and in just two years produced the first winning season in Montlake since 2002.  To keep this momentum going, Sarkisian must get some solid quarterback play of sophomore Keith Price, who looked good in limited action last season.  Fortunately he has Chris Polk, one of the nation's best tailbacks lining up behind him, who will run straight at opposing defenses, grinding away tough yards.  On the edges, Price should be able to count on hands of Jermaine Kearse and and Devin Aguilar.  The defense looked positively awful at times last year before pulling together and making the difference in the Huskies four game win streak to end the season.  The Dawgs have a solid secondary led by junior corner Desmond Trufant, but it's not clear whether the front seven will be stout enough to cause trouble.

2.  Oregon
A heartbraking 22-19 loss to Auburn in the BCS National Championship capped the best season in program history. For the Ducks to repeat that success, they must find playmakers on both sides of the ball.  That will prove difficult.  Darron Thomas is a proven performer, but who among his receivers will step up and deliver the consistency and clutch effort of Jeff Maehl? LaMichael James' credentials are unquestioned, but will a rebuilt offensive line be able create space like last year?  The Ducks' secondary looks outstanding on paper with superstar corner Cliff Harris and safety John Boyett, but how effective will they be if the defensive line cannot match the harassment of Brandon Bair and Kenny Rowe?  And how can you possibly replace the speed and smarts of linebackers Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger?  Answers:  No one. No.  Not as. They can't.

1.  Stanford
The Cardinal have some questions on their offensive and defensive lines, as well as uncertainty at wide receiver, but there's only one question that really matters.  Does Stanford still have the same blood & guts attitude Jim Harbaugh brought to this program and that animated its players for the last three years?  Or did it leave with him?  The promotion of offensive coordinator David Shaw to head coach goes along way in answering 'yes.'

Of course, having a guy who turned down the #1 pick in the NFL Draft  doesn't hurt. But Andrew Luck won't have to do it alone.  He has a solid running attack led by junior Stepfan Taylor.  If he gets anything like the push he had last season from the retooled O-line, the Cardinal will run down the throats of opponents.  And if they can do that, then Luck will dissect defenses throwing to Griff Whalen, field-stretcher Chris Owusu, and tight end Coby Fleener.

Defensively, the Cardinal return most of their secondary and linebacking corps, led by last year's two leading tacklers Shayne Skov and Chase Thomas.  But they will need to find some new muscle on the line to make their 3-4 scheme effective.

***

Pac-12 Championship Game (12/2):  Stanford vs. Arizona State

Winner and Pac-12 Champion:  Stanford

Pac-12 Bowl Predictions:
Rose:  Stanford
Alamo: Oregon
Holiday:  Arizona State
Sun:  Washington
Las Vegas:  California
Fight Hunger:  Utah
New Mexico:  Arizona

Fear the Fork! Arizona State's New Logo and Uniforms

In an effort to promote and rebrand the school's image, Arizona State unveiled its new logo and uniforms for the athletic program Tuesday.  Noticeable in the Nike designed outfits is the absence of Sparky on the helmets where the mascot has been prominently featured for decades.  The new look is sharp, particularly the all black uniforms and helmets.  Clearly ASU has taken note of the enormous success Oregon has enjoyed for more than a decade promoting its program through cutting edge redesigns of its uniforms and image.  And don't think it doesn't matter.  Whatever fans may think of the new look uniforms worn by Oregon and more and more NCAA teams, recruits love them.  In a recent ESPN The Magazine poll, NCAA football players were asked who had the best uniforms.  Oregon won in a landslide (53.7%).  One Big Ten star was particularly impressed.  "I don't even have to think about that one," he says "I almost wanted to transfer there just for those uniforms."

The school's announcement was accompanied by some cool videos celebrating the program's heritage, including this one featuring Sun Devil greats like Danny White, Mike Haynes, Pat Tillman and Todd Heap:

Washington State Unveils New Uniforms

The Cougars revealed their new Nike designed uniforms Monday.  Overall, they don't look notably different from previous uniforms, but I really think dropping the silver helmet in favor of gray is a mistake.  As a traditionalist, I've always liked Wazzu's uniforms, which I think are one of best in the Pac-10, if not the country.  Fortunately, the Cougars' logo, arguably the most recognizable in the entire NCAA, doesn't change.  I am especially mystified as to the appeal of the gray on gray version, but this is the trend today.  Programs increasingly favor the sleek, nontraditional look.

Here Comes the Pac-12!

Love it or hate it, the Pac-12 is here.

2010 Pac-10 Preview

The Pac-10 was dominated by youth in 2009, but proved to be among the strongest conferences in the country. Now, a league full of veterans, including a quartet of outstanding quarterbacks, looks to show the country the west is the best. But don't expect a Pac-10 representative in the national title game. The league is too deep and talented to escape with less than two losses. As to who the league champion will be... who knows? Every team has question marks. Oregon and Oregon State must break in new quarterbacks. Washington, Arizona, Stanford and Cal need to find some defense. Meanwhile, Arizona State and UCLA must find some offense. One thing the league won't lack is star power. Husky quarterback Jake Locker and Beaver tailback Jacquizz Rogers are Heisman contenders, while Andrew Luck at Stanford and LaMichael James at Oregon will produce plenty of highlight material.

10. Washington State

I expect this team to be more competitive in 2010. Depth is always an issue in Pullman, so if they can stay healthy, quarterback Jeff Tuel and wideout Jard Karstetter are talented enough to make some things happen on offense. Defensively, the Cougars could hardly be worse than last year, giving up 38.5 points per game. Head coach Paul Wulff is convinced this team is better this year and I think they could pull off an upset or two, but it won't be enough to keep them out of the conference cellar.

9. UCLA

Why does this team struggle so much? They get more talent than any west coast school not named USC. They have a head coach with winning credentials and one of the all-time best offensive coordinaors. If Rick Neuheisel doesn't notch more than three conference wins, the folks in Westwood will want to run him out of town on a rail. Making matters worse is the difficulty UCLA is having keeping its players on the field. Four of the five projected starters on the offensive line are out. Tackle Xavier Su'a Faolo left on his Mormom mission. Center Kai Maiava is out with a broken ankle. Guard/tackle Jeff Baca was ruled academically ineligible and is out for the season while tackle Mike Harris is suspended for the opener against Kansas State. Both quarterback Kevin Prince and kicker Kai Forbath could also miss the opener because of injuries. If the Bruins win that game, K-State head coach Bill Snyder should be fired.

8. Arizona State

New offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone will try to ressurect an inept offense by introducing a Texas Tech style spread offense. Junior Signal caller Steven Threet will have the responsibilty breaking it in. Not gonna be easy. There's little talent or depth in the backfield to take the pressure off . There's no proven receiver, and the offensive line is in tatters. Defensively, things look much better. Despite losing defensive end Dexter Davis and his 31 career sacks, the line could be even better with Lawrence Guy and Saia Falahola cementing the interior. Behind them, a fast and athletic linebacking corps led by freshman defensvie player of the year Vontaze Burfict will give the Sun Devils one of the best front sevens in the country.

7. California

No program has underachieved more than Cal in the last decade. Despite being blessed with talent, the Golden Bears consistently lose games they should win and fall short in the big ones (not to mention they are incapable of beating Oregon State). Things won't get better unless Kevin Riley can play with some shred of consistency and make plays. Remember when Jeff Tedford could turn any quarterback into a winner? Kyle Boller anyone? Riley has no excuses with Shane Vereen behind him, veteran O-line in front, and stud wideout Marvin Johnson on the edge. On the other side of the ball, coordinator Bob Gregory bolted for Boise St., leaving a defense with only five returners. New coordinator Clancy Pendergast will try to make up for this by taking chances with a more aggresive package led by defensive end Cameron Jordan and all-conference linebacker Mike Mohammed.

6. Washington

There's a lot of hype behind Jake Locker and the Huskies. And not without reason. After taking over a winless team that may have been the worst in the nation, head coach Steve Sarkisian led the Huskies to five wins, including a program defining victory over third ranked USC. This year, with a Heisman hopeful and nine returning starters on offense, the Dawgs will put all kinds of pressure on opposing defenses. If Locker improves his passing the way everyone expects him to, he will be the most dangerous offensive player in the country. Combined with tough-running Chris Polk and long range weapon Jermaine Kearse, the Huskies are primed to put up points. The defense loses some key personnel, including linebacker Donald Butler, but second year coordinator Nick Holt will reload and improve this squad. Unfortunately, a tough schedule with road games against USC, Arizona and Oregon will keep them from finishing higher.

5. Arizona

The best quarterback to come out of Tuscon in more than a decade, Nick Foles led the Wildcats to eight wins, and only a double OT loss to Oregon kept them out of the Rose Bowl. With nearly everyone returning, Foles is surrounded an offense that is both talented and deep. Nic Grigsby heads up a solid stable of running backs, while wideout Juron Criner will be a breakout playmaker downfield. But how will the offense handle the loss of departing offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes? Defensively, there are similar questions. With only four returning starters and the loss of coordinator Mark Stoops, will the Cats be able to stop anyone? They have a pair of outstanding defensive ends in Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed, and an excellent cover corner in Trevin Wade, but with inexperience on the interior line and at linebacker, the Wildcats could be soft up the middle. Lucky for them, they have a favorable schedule with seven home games including Cal, Oregon State Washington and USC.

4. Southern Cal

The Trojans endured one of the most tumultuous off-seasons in conference history. Head coach Pete Carroll left for the NFL. An NCAA investigation into the shennanignas of former tailback Reggie Bush during the 2004 & 2005 seasons resulted in vacated wins (including their national championship), a loss of 30 scholarships over three seasons, a two year bowl ban, and four years probation. Former USC offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin created more controversy when he jumped ship after only one year at Tennessee to become the Trojans new head coach.

The good news is that USC is still loaded with talent. Sophomore quarterback Matt Barkely showed tremendous maturity as a true freshman last season and is set for a big year. Junior Marc Tyler emerged from a ultra-talented group of tailbacks to win the starting job, while senior receiver Ronald Johnson will look to stretch defenses. With Kiffin at the helm, this unit will be much improved over last season. On the other side, a battle tested defensive front will look to protect an inexperienced secondary under new coordinator Monte Kiffin.

The biggest issue facing the Men of Troy is the loss of mystique after losing four conference games, including blowouts at the hands of the Ducks and the Cardinal. No one in the Pac-10 fears the Trojans, and the swagger that existed under Pete Carroll during the Bush-Leinart years appears to be gone. On the other hand, the sense of injustice the players feel after the bowl ban may result in a team of angry blue-chippers with something to prove.

3. Oregon State

Mike Riley has built a perennial Rose Bowl contender in Corvallis. But to do it again, the Beavers must overcome the loss of all conference quarterback Sean Canfield. Riley will hand the keys to the offense over to Ryan Katz, a mobile, strong-armed sophomore who appears to have all the tools, but no experience. Fortunately for Katz, he inherits a veteran O-line and the most dynamic playmaking duo in the country. Tailback Jacquizz Rodgers may well find himself in New York for the Heisman ceremony, while his brother James keeps defenses honest with his speed on the fly sweep and the deep ball.

The Beaver defense, which was fairly pedestrian last season will need to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Defensive tackle Stephen Paea is a beast in the middle who should get enough attention to free up defensive ends Gabe Miller and Taylor Henry. Linebacker, which has traditionally been a strength for the Beavs is now area of concern with injuries and departures taking their toll. The secondary should be solid if there is improvement on the defensive front. The Beavers success ultimately lies with Katz. If the Beavers can avoid another lousy start and Katz can get some confidence early, the Beavers will be tough to stop. But an unforgiving schedule that begins with road games against TCU and Boise, and ends with USC, Stanford and Oregon will keep them out of the Rose Bowl.

2. Stanford

The loss of Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart (1,871 yards, 28 TDs) means sophomore sensation Andrew Luck will throw the ball more. That won't be a problem. Luck exhibited extraordinary poise as a freshman, repeatedly making clutch throws to keep his team alive. But he will need more consistency out of this receivers to win games. Meanwhile, coach Jim Harbaugh will try to replace Gerhart's production by committee with senior Jeremy Stewart getting the start.

The defense will be a problem. When Gerhart pounded away at opposing defenses, wearing them down and eating up the clock, the Cardinal defense rested. Harbaugh won't be able to reproduce that. Even when they had that luxury, the Cardinal still gave up the second most yards in the conference. Harbaugh will try to compensate by switching to a 3-4 scheme that's more aggressive and takes advantage of his personnel. If the defense is shored up, the Cardinal will take advantage of a favorable schedule and challenge for the league title.

1. Oregon

Before the dismissal of Jeremiah Masoli, this team was a national title contender. The Ducks won't be able to replace his toughness and playmaking ability, but with all the weapons they have, they may not have to. Sophomore Darron Thomas brings athleticism and moxie to the position. As a true freshman, he was thrown into what appeared to be a blow out loss to Boise, and threw three touchdown passes to nearly bring the Ducks back. He'll get help from a group of fast, lanky receivers led by sure-handed Jeff-Maehl. In the backfield, there's an abundance of riches with speedsters LaMichael James (6.7 yards per carry last year) and Kenjon Barner. Did I mention all five starters return to an offensive line that may have been the best in the conference last season?

The Ducks will once again field a somewhat undersized, but really fast defense. Kenny Rowe and Brandon Bair head up a defensive line that led the league in sacks last year. Senior linebacker Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger will plug the holes while a deep, battle-tested secondary tries to keep Pac-10 receivers in check. In a conference loaded with offense, the Ducks appear to be the only team with enough steam on defense to slow opponents down, and that will be the difference.

Commissioner Bevo and Big-12 Decline

Something's not right

It began earlier in the decade when Big-12 teams managed to, on several occasions, slide their way into undeserved rankings and bowl games. In 2001, #2 Nebraska was trampled by Colorado 62-36 late in the season. And yet the Cornhuskers, who failed to even qualify for the Big-12 title game, somehow snuck into the national championship game, where they were completely outclassed by Miami. Two years later, the Sooners were blitzed by Kansas State 35-7 in the conference championship, but that didn't stop them from backdooring their way to the national title game, where they were mauled by LSU. The teams nudged out of those title games? Oregon and USC.

In 2004, Texas coach Mack Brown's public lobbying of pollsters, followed by a mysterious shift in the coaches poll, was enough to drop the #4 ranked Cal Bears (whose only loss was the National Champion Trojans) behind Texas in the computers. As a result, Texas was awarded the at-large Rose Bowl berth while Cal was left to play 23rd ranked Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl. The Associated Press was so appalled by the situation that it immediately ended its poll's association with the BCS. Whether one views these instances as chicanery, good luck or Pac-10 sour grapes, it's fair to say the Big-12's reputation took a hit (at least until Texas "Vinced" USC in 2005).

The rich get richer...

The more recent and problematic issue facing the Big-12 is the significant decline in its quality, depth and parity over the last five years. Programs like Nebraska, Colorado and Kansas State who not long ago competed for both conference and national titles, have become mediocre (although the Cornhuskers appear to be on the rise).

Now, there is only Texas and Oklahoma.

Sure, teams like Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Missouri have improved over the past few years, but only enough to nip at the heals of the Sooners and Longhorns. In the last decade, no other team has won the South. In that same span, only two outside of Austin and Norman have won the conference (Colorado in '01, Kansas State in '03). That's six straight years and counting of Red River dominance with no end in sight.

Contrast this with the SEC, where five different teams have won the conference in the 2000s. Presently, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt may not have a prayer of winning the conference, but about half the league does. In Big-10 country, seven of eleven teams have won or shared the conference crown in that span. Out west, parity returns as USC's unprecedented reign over the last decade appears to be at an end. Just look at the bottom of the conference -- the Washington schools have been Pac-10 doormats for the last five years, but the Cougars won two conference titles and notched four 10-win seasons in the six years before the Trojans run. The Huskies haven't been to a bowl since 2002, but this season they actually have a shot (albeit it long one) at winning the conference. Can Baylor, Iowa State or Texas A&M say the same?

This imbalance is only exacerbated by the departure of Nebraska and Colorado. Rumors have swirled that the Big-12 may try to add Arkansas and TCU in the future. An intriguing notion, but assuming there is any validity to this, does anyone believe either team could threaten the Texlahoma monopoly? The Razorbacks and Horned Frogs would certainly get loads of money and other perks, but they would have to agree to be permanent second-class citizens.

The Longhorn-10?

It gets worse. Reports suggest that Texas used the Pac-10 expansion overtures to leverage the Big-12 for more money, its own televsion network (and all the revenue it generates), as well as a commitment by Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Baylor to hand over their share of the $35-$40 million in penalties to be paid by Nebraska and Colorado to Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Isn't this a little outrageous?

Like Ohio State, Florida and USC, Texas is the big dog. It brings in the big money and is therefore entitled to a bigger slice of the pie. But unlike the Big-12, the other BCS conferences have applied far more equitable revenue sharing policies that ensure the long term viability of all their members. The Big-12 needs Texas, but by hitching its wagon to Bevo, it risks further indignities to its teams, or Texas bolting when the arrangement no longer suits them. It's no wonder Nebraska and Colorado left town. The situation has become untenable. As for Texas, this will probably work out for them in the short term, making an even smoother path to the national championship, but down the road, as the conference begins to crumble beneath them, won't everyone begin to notice the emperor's not wearing any clothes?

Pac-10 Expansion

Now that the dust has settled on the Pac-10 expansion, I have a few thoughts on how this played out and what the Pac-12 will mean for the league and its fans. First of all, and I say this as someone who is a generally a traditionalist, I think expansion was a good thing. Second year comissioner Larry Scott has brought a great deal of energy and fresh thinking to the conference. His move to expand to sixteen teams was a bold one. Some will argue whether settling for twelve teams actually improved the league, or whether he was played by Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds, but no one can argue that Scott has his eyes on the horizon trying to raise the Pac-10's national profile.

And in this, he has cleary been successful. It is evident (if not demonstrable), for a number of reasons, that outside of USC, the Pac-10 does not get the kind of national respect, recogniton and ultimately revenue the SEC, Big-10, and Big 12 enjoy. And some of those reasons are perfectly legitimate, whether the result of circumstances, demographics or geography. But by going after the big boys like Texas and Oklahoma, Scott has put the college football landscape on notice that the Pac-10 is a national player, not content with playing second fiddle to anyone.

In Colorado, you get a program with strong history of success that is only a good coach away from a return to national prominence. With Utah you get a team on the rise who has won two BCS bowls in the last five years. Adding the Denver and Salt Lake City markets means more revenue as the conference goes forward to negotiate a better TV contract. This can only help the conference to get a better Bowl contract as well. Combined with the inevitable addition of a conference championship game, the Pac-10 is primed to get more viewership, more coverage and more revenue. And he isn't finished. Scott, along Pac-10 coaches and quarterbacks just concluded an East Coast media tour to promote the conference.

So what will the Pac-12 look like? There are two likely scenarios.

A North-South split:

• North: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Cal, Stanford
  
• South: UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah

The "zipper" plan:

• East: Washington State, Oregon, Stanford, USC, Arizona, Colorado


• West: Washington, Oregon State, Cal, UCLA, Arizona State, Utah

In either scenario, the loss of the round robin schedule means northwest schools will no longer have the annual trip to Los Angeles, which coaches see as essential for recruiting. No one wants to lose that access, which is why the "zipper" plan seems most likely because it guarantees a trip to LA at least every other year, while maintaining the annual in state/regional rivalry games (The Apple Cup, Civil War, The Big Game, etc.). There are sticky issues with either plan, so we may not know what is decided for some time. Regardless of how the new Pac-12 takes shape, there is little doubt that it will have a huge impact on the college football landscape. What better time to be a fan of the best conference in football?!